Somalia Economic Outlook 2026

Somalia is not short of commentary on its economy. It is short of a single document that says, in one place and with its sources attached, what is actually known, what is estimated, and what is being repeated because someone repeated it earlier. Veynuus intends to publish an annual economic outlook to fill that gap. The first edition has not been produced. What follows describes the publication we intend to make and the method by which we would make it, so that anyone considering commissioning, sponsoring or reading it can judge the approach before there is a document to judge.

What this publication covers

The outlook is planned as an annual volume in five parts. It would open with a macroeconomic chapter that pulls federal budget execution, monetary indicators, remittance and trade figures into one series, dated and attributed, with revisions shown rather than quietly replaced. It would then run sector chapters covering trade and logistics, financial services and mobile money, livestock and agriculture, construction, and digital infrastructure, chosen because they are where most formal employment and most measurable activity sit.

A separate section would read the economy from the federal member states outward. National figures in Somalia conceal a great deal, and a Jubaland port question and a Somaliland trade question are not the same question. The volume would close with a risk chapter written as scenarios with their assumptions stated, and an appendix documenting sources.

Method

The starting point is published material: federal and state budget documents, Central Bank publications, IMF and World Bank reporting on Somalia, FAO and food security assessments, and customs and port records where they can be obtained. These would be compiled into a single dated series rather than quoted in passing, and where two credible sources disagree the outlook would show both rather than pick one.

Published data alone is insufficient here, so the second layer is primary interviewing. We would run a structured programme of interviews with importers and clearing agents, bank and mobile money operators, chambers of commerce, sector associations, and officials in federal and state ministries, using a common protocol so that responses can be compared across markets rather than read as anecdotes. Fieldwork would be carried out by Somali researchers working in Somali, and interview notes would be retained against the claims they support.

Every quantitative statement in the finished volume would carry a source, a collection date and a confidence marking. Where we cannot substantiate something, the outlook would say so rather than estimate around it. Before publication the draft would go through internal review by the practice, then to external readers with sector expertise, and the sector chapters would be put to at least one practitioner working in that sector for comment on whether the description matches what they see.

Who it is for

The intended readers are people who have to make a decision and would rather not make it on impression: federal and state ministries setting budget assumptions, development finance institutions and donors sizing programmes, banks and investors assessing exposure, diaspora investors reading the market from outside it, and the research staff of agencies working in the country. It is written for readers who want the working shown.

Status

This publication is in preparation. No edition has been completed, no findings exist, and nothing on this page should be read as a result. We have not committed to a publication date, because the date depends on data access we are still establishing. To register interest, to be notified when the first edition is available, or to discuss sponsoring or contributing to it, write to [email protected].